COVID-19 economic outlook bleak until Q4

The Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters Chief Economist analysis of the impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak on the global and Canadian economy – and what this means for companies in the short and long-term – will be bleak until the approach of 2021.
These are the highlights, courtesy of the Canadian Process Control Association:

• The coronavirus has pushed the world into a recession, with global GDP growth forecast to reach just 0.4 per cent this year.
• A collapse in growth in the second quarter will be followed by a rebound in economic activity over the second half of the year and into 2021. This will allow global real GDP growth to turn positive and reach 3.9 per cent next year.
• The United States economy is projected to contract by 3.1% in 2020, before rebounding with a 3.4 per cent gain in 2021.
• Canadian real GDP is forecast to fall by an even steeper 3.8 per cent this year, with the economy recovering and expanding by 3.2 per cent in 2021.
• As an essential service, the Canadian manufacturing sector will continue operating through the government-imposed shutdowns. Even still, it is set to post its biggest decline in output since the global financial crisis this year, due to weak demand for certain products.
• Manufacturing output growth will bounce back in 2021, in line with improving domestic and global economic conditions.